Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Greece Crisis -A complete picture

I did't knew that in my lifetime I will have to hear that an entire country is on sale..Yeah that's not a surprise question..we all know I am talking about Greece..The economy of Greece is really in shambles so much so that if the govt is unable to pay off it's debts then they have to sell their property.As I am writing this,the govt has already auctioned its railways,beaches,casino,airports,hotels,water,electricity and every unimaginable thing.If this slurry would keep on going then we would very soon see a private country.A country which is a fragmented and owned by private organizations.
I am honestly trembled to think about tte magnitude of crisis which is getting unfolded.To put it simply ,if Greece fails to pay it's debt then the whole world will distrust the bond markets and everybody will be in Mad hold to pull out their investment thus triggering a systemic crisis and destroying the value of Euro.If this happens then the wealthier countries like France and Germany will be in huge loss.They will never want to see this day and hence they will ensure that people Trust Europe and continue to hold their investments and hence keep the euro strong.So these countries have two options,either let Greece pull out of the euro zone or never let Greece fail.Greece would never like to pull itself out of Euro zone because of it's exclusivity and benefits.If the euro countries decide to throw Greece out of the club then other unstable economies like Italy,Portugal,Ireland and Hungary would follow suit thus making euro club very unpopular and weak.
The best and only option is to never let Greece fail.To make this happen Germany and France would have to bail out by giving shark loans and they will do so only if they are sure that greece is able to a back them and only if their country will support this decision.People in Europe are against it because it's unfair to bail out other country at the cost of their earned tax.On the other hand Greece is not sure if they can pay back the amount to them or not because it's condition is really like a begger.To get the loan they would need to bring tough austerity measures and tax people heavily ,the population is bitterly against it but govt has no option if it has to save itself..
As the crisis is unfolding There are several big questions which is on everybody's mind...Will the govt be able to pass these austerity measure? Will govt be able to repay back the money in near term even in the face of highly unpopular policy and skepticism?Will the govt display the leadership at this juncture and able to contain the widespread unemployment and hatred.Will investors trust the Euro market and most fundamentally,Is the capitalist economic model which these govts are pursuing in the face of over leveraged capital markets a sustainable one or it's the slap on the face due to excess greed.?
I don't know these answers and I don't Even think that anybody at this time knows it,time is the biggest teacher and we all will see things soon.

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